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#1 - The following paper includes the Potsdam Institute's prediction that a 4 degree temperature rise, which we are on track for by 2100, will leave a planet with a carrying capacity of 1 billion. (See p.9). It also quotes Kevin Anderson's prediction of half a billion. (PDF)

#2 - On the issue of meeting our climate targets, this NRTEE paper (PDF) is the most recent.  It concludes that:

"Canada will not achieve its 2020 GHG emission reductions target unless significant new, additional measures are taken. More will have to be done. No other conclusion is possible."


In his 2012 Spring Report,…; Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainability Scott Vaughan states "Environment Canada's forecasts show that targets will not be met with existing measures."

The 2012 Spring Report's Conclusion:

2.36 Since 1992, the Government of Canada has committed, in various plans and agreements, to address climate change by reducing its national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, national GHG emissions have risen and were 690 million tonnes in 2009, which is 24 percent above the Kyoto target.

2.37 In 2010, the Government of Canada made new international and domestic commitments to reduce GHG emissions to 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. Environment Canada has announced a sector-by-sector regulatory approach in alignment with the United States. However, we concluded that the Department has not put in place an appropriate implementation plan to support this approach, which is designed to meet the 2020 target established by these commitments. As of February 2012, only one of the sectors, the transportation sector, was under regulation for GHG emissions. No regulations were in place for the oil and gas sector, the second-largest emitter of GHG. Because regulations are complex, and can take up to five years to develop and result in GHG reductions, it is unlikely that the regulatory approach will contribute emission reductions that are sufficient to meet the 2020 target.

2.38 In July 2011, Environment Canada released Canada’s Emissions Trends, a report that outlines expected GHG emission reductions up to 2020, under varying scenarios. This document is an important step toward a transparent accounting of Canada’s efforts to reduce GHG emissions. However, the forecast shows that in 2020, Canada’s GHG emissions will be 7.4 percent above the 2005 level instead of 17 percent below, which indicates that the 2020 target will not be met with existing measures.

#3 - A Path to Sustainable Energy by 2030 (Scientific American, November 2009)…